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Hydrology, Model Development, Global Hydrological Modeling, mHM, SCC, Floods, Reservoirs
Germany, Thailand

Biography

I am one of the active developers of the mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) and the lead developer of reservoir representation in mHM.

Since earning a Master's degree in 2013 (Water Resources Engineering), I have gained over a decade of valuable experience in the development and application of hydrological models. Currently, I hold the position of a PhD researcher in the lab of Luis Samaniego at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).

My PhD aims to contribute towards locally relevant flood forecasting in managed river basins, at global scale. The first chapter of my PhD is an application paper (Najafi et al. 2024, Nature Communications) where we developed and tested a high-resolution (1 km) flood early warning system, FEWS, with mHM, on a real flood event (The 2021 summer flood in Germany), retrospectively. This proof of concept produced impact forecast as well as early notice time till 100 years return period water level at each model grid.

Integrating such local level FEWS in regional/continental domains in global scale poses challenges. Gridded hydrological models, such as mHM, incur simulation errors at local level using the existing (classic or state-of-the-art) stream network upscaling methods. While hyperresolution modeling theoretically addresses this issue, its high computational cost bars its use in large-scale modeling, prompting the search for alternatives. In the second chapter of my PhD (under review), we augment global hydrological models with the missing "eagle vision". We achieve this by developing a new stream network upscaling technique called subgrid catchment conservation. SCC offers three distinct advantages: 1) generates locally relevant streamflow i.e., ensures consistency of streamflow performance across catchment sizes (1 km2 to 4,680,000 km2), 2) improves consistency of streamflow across model resolution, and 3) resolves multiple gauges within a grid.

Reservoirs stand as the bastions of humanity's defence against floods. Preparing FEWS for managed basins in large-scale modeling was another challenge we tackled in the final chapter of my PhD. We developed a new reservoir module for mHM (Shrestha et al. 2024, WRR), an improvement over the state-of-the-art representation in large-scale modeling. The research delves into three key aspects: 1) employing machine learning methods to reverse estimate non-consumptive demands (e.g., hydropower), 2) sensitivity of simulations to reservoir bathymetry, and 3) possible thresholds to identify and exclude non-disruptive reservoirs from the model simulation.

Activities

Employment (4)

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ: Leipzig, Sachsen, DE

2017-10-16 to present | PhD researcher (Computational Hydrosystems)
Employment
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Asian Institute of Technology: Bangkok, Pathumthani, TH

2014-05-01 to 2017-10-14 | Water Resources Specialist and Developer (Water Engineering and Management)
Employment
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Nepal Development Research Institute: Kathmandu, NP

2013-11-01 to 2014-04-30 | Research Associate
Employment
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Kathmandu Engineering College (Tribhuvan University): Kathmandu, NP

2011-11-01 to 2013-10-31 | Lecturer (Civil Engineering)
Employment
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Education and qualifications (3)

University of Potsdam: Potsdam, DE

2017-10-16 to present | PhD (Department of Geoecology)
Education
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Tribhuvan University: Lalitpur, NP

2011 to 2013 | MSc in Water Resouces Engineering (Civil Engineering)
Education
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Tribhuvan University: Lalitpur, NP

2006 to 2010 | BE in Civil Engineering (Civil Engineering)
Education
Source: Self-asserted source
Pallav Kumar Shrestha

Works (23)

Everywhere and Locally Relevant Streamflow Simulations in Hydrological Modeling

2025-01-20 | Preprint
Contributors: Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Luis Samaniego; Rohini Kumar; Stephan Thober
Source: check_circle
Crossref

On the predictability of the seasonal droughts at global scale

2025-01-20 | Preprint
Contributors: Luis Samaniego; Ehsan Modiri; E.H. (Edwin) Sutanudjaja; Pallav Shrestha; Alberto Martinez-de la Torre; Oldrich Rakovec; Robert Schweppe; Matthias Kelbling; Katie Facer-Childs; Amulya Chevuturi et al.
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Recent advances in developing high-resolution flood forecasting systems in Germany

2025-01-20 | Preprint
Contributors: Husain Najafi; Oldrich Rakovec; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Rohini Kumar; Sergiy Vorogushyn; Heiko Apel; Stephan Thober; Bruno Merz; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Understanding Hydrological Model Performance through Variability Analysis of Observed Water Balance Components and Meteorological Forcings

2025-01-20 | Preprint
Contributors: Ehsan Modiri; Luis Samaniego; Robert Schweppe; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Oldrich Rakovec; Matthias Kelbling; Rohini Kumar; Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas; Alberto Martínez-de La Torre; Emma L. Robinson et al.
Source: check_circle
Crossref

High-resolution impact-based early warning system for riverine flooding

Nature Communications
2024-05-02 | Journal article
Contributors: Husain Najafi; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Oldrich Rakovec; Heiko Apel; Sergiy Vorogushyn; Rohini Kumar; Stephan Thober; Bruno Merz; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Toward Improved Simulations of Disruptive Reservoirs in Global Hydrological Modeling

Water Resources Research
2024-04 | Journal article
Contributors: P. K. Shrestha; L. Samaniego; O. Rakovec; R. Kumar; C. Mi; K. Rinke; S. Thober
Source: check_circle
Crossref

A seamless hydrologic forecasting system for Germany

2023-05-15 | Preprint
Contributors: Husain Najafi; Rakovec Oldrich; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Stephan Thober; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Global assessment of hydrological components using a seamless multiscale modelling system

2023-05-15 | Preprint
Contributors: Oldrich Rakovec; Rohini Kumar; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Global Budyko water balance assessment application as a diagnostic tool to improve seasonal forecasts

2023-05-15 | Preprint
Contributors: Ehsan Modiri; Luis Samaniego; Robert Schweppe; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Oldrich Rakovec; Matthias Kelbling; Alberto Martínez-de La Torre; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Eleanor Blyth; Niko Wanders et al.
Source: check_circle
Crossref

The quest for scalable hydrological system for reservoir modeling

2023-05-15 | Preprint
Contributors: Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Luis Samaniego; Oldrich Rakovec; Stephan Thober
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Assessing skills of the ULYSSES global multi-model hydrological seasonal prediction system

2022-03-27 | Preprint
Contributors: Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Luis Samaniego; Stephan Thober; Alberto Martínez-de La Torre; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Oldrich Rakovec; Matthias Kelbling; Eleanor Blyth; Niko Wanders
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Hyperresolution Global Operational Hydrological Modelling and Forecasting: enhancing reproducability, skill and workflows setup 

2022-03-27 | Preprint
Contributors: Stephan Thober; Luis Samaniego; Sebastian Müller; Pallav Shrestha; Matthias Kelbling; Oldrich Rakovec; Friedrich Boeing; Andreas Marx; Rohini Kumar; Sabine Attinger
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Multivariate evaluation of four high-resolution hydrological models at  global scale

2022-03-27 | Preprint
Contributors: Luis Samaniego; Oldrich Rakovec; Alberto Martinez de la Torre; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Pallav K. Shrestha; Eleanor Blyth; Niko Wanders; Matthias Kelbling; Stephan Thober
Source: check_circle
Crossref

New insights for real-time flood forecasting in Germany: Lessons learned from 2021 summer flood in Ahr river

2022-03-27 | Preprint
Contributors: Husain Najafi; Stephan Thober; Oldrich Rakovec; Pallav Kumar shrestha; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

A drought monitoring tool for South Asia

Environmental Research Letters
2021-05-01 | Journal article
Contributors: Toma Rani Saha; Pallav K Shrestha; Oldrich Rakovec; Stephan Thober; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Advancements in the mesoscale Hydrologic Model at the global scale

2021-03-04 | Other
Contributors: Oldrich Rakovec; Maren Kaluza; Rohini Kumar; Robert Schweppe; Pallav Shrestha; Stephan Thober; Sebastian Mueller; Sabine Attinger; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

German Near-Real Time Ensemble Hydroclimate Forecasting System

2021-03-04 | Other
Contributors: Husain Najafi; Stephan Thober; Oldrich Rakovec; Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Luis Samaniego-Eguiguren
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Regionalization of Reservoir regulation parameters using physiographic and climatological predictors

2021-03-03 | Other
Contributors: Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Stephan Thober; Luis Samaniego
Source: check_circle
Crossref

ULYSSES: a system for global multi-model hydrological seasonal predictions

2021-03-03 | Other
Contributors: Luis Samaniego; Stephan Thober; Matthias Kelbling; Robert Schweppe; Oldrich Rakovec; Pallav Shrestha; Alberto Martinez-de la Torre; Eleanor M. Blyth; Katie A. Smith; Gwyn Rees et al.
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Evaluation of land use change and its impact on water yield in Songkhram River basin, Thailand

International Journal of River Basin Management
2020-01-02 | Journal article
Contributors: Manish Shrestha; Sangam Shrestha; Pallav Kumar Shrestha
Source: check_circle
Crossref

How significant is sub‐daily variability of rainfall for hydrological modelling of floods? A satellite based approach to sub‐daily downscaling of gauged rainfall

Meteorological Applications
2019-04 | Journal article
Contributors: Pallav K. Shrestha; Sangam Shrestha; Sarawut Ninsawat
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Model-based estimation of land subsidence in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
2017-12-15 | Journal article
Contributors: Pallav Kumar Shrestha; Narendra Man Shakya; Vishnu Prasad Pandey; Stephen J. Birkinshaw; Sangam Shrestha
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Bias correction of climate models for hydrological modelling – are simple methods still useful?

Meteorological Applications
2017-07 | Journal article
Contributors: Manish Shrestha; Suwash Chandra Acharya; Pallav Kumar Shrestha
Source: check_circle
Crossref

Peer review (1 review for 1 publication/grant)

Review activity for Water resources research. (1)