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model development, prediction models, prognostic models, external validation, risk of bias, reporting guidelines
United Kingdom

Biography

Professor of Medical Statistics, NIHR Senior Investigator, Director of the Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Director of the UK EQUATOR Centre, University of Oxford.

Research interests primarily in diagnostic and prognostic prediction models (particularly validation) including methodological conduct and reporting, and using big data to develop and evaluate prediction models.

My research interests are primarily focused on methodological aspects surrounding the development and validation multivariable prediction (prognostic) models (design and analysis) and he has published extensively in this area. I am particularly interested in the sample size considerations and the role of big data in developing and evaluating prediction models. I am also interested in the systematic review and appraisal of prognostic studies and developed the CHARMS Checklist for conducting systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies.

Along with Doug Altman, Karel Moons and Hans Reitsma, UMC Utrecht, the Netherlands, I led an international collaboration to produce the TRIPOD consensus guidance on issues to report when developing or validating (prognostic and diagnostic) prediction models. This guidance is currently being extended for prediction models developed using 'big data' or individual participant data from multiple studies. Gary was involved in the development of PROBAST, a risk of bias tool to evaluate prediction model studies (using regression or machine learning/artificial intelligence methods). Two papers were published in the Annals of Internal Medicine describing the PROBAST checklist and and accompanying Explanation & Elaboration paper.

I am currently leading an international initiative to develop guidance for studies using artificial intelligence and machine learning (TRIPOD-AI). I was also been involved in other guidance for reporting artificial intelligence/machine learning studies including CONSORT-AI/SPIRIT-AI (for reporting AI intervention studies), STARD-AI (for reporting AI based diagnostic test accuracy [DTA] studies), and DECIDE-AI (bridging the development-implementation gap). I am also involved in developed risk of bias tools for machine learning diagnostic test accuracy studies (QUADAS-AI) and prediction model studies (PROBAST-AI). I am also involved with colleagues from the University of Southern California developming guidance for the responsible use of large language models such as ChatGPT for research (the CANGARU guidelines) and with colleagues from McMaster University for developing reporting guidance on studies evaluating chatbots for providing medical advice (CHART guideline).

I have been involved in the development of reporting guidelines including the GATHER statement for reporting global health estimates, and published in the Lancet and PLoS Medicine, and the AGReMA statement for reporting mediation analyses, published in JAMA. More recently I am involved in updating the SPIRIT and CONSORT guidelines. I am also a steering group member of the international STRATOS Initiative, which aims to provide accessible and accurate guidance in the design and analysis of observational studies, and in 2024 will be on the external advisory board for the Centre for Open Science Transparency and Openness Promotion Guidelines

Activities

Employment (1)

University of Oxford: Oxford, GB

2006 to present | Professor of Medical Statistics (Centre for Statistics in Medicine)
Employment
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins

Education and qualifications (1)

University of Exeter: Exeter, Devon, GB

1997-09-01 to 2000-01-01 | PhD (Mathematical Statistics and Operational Research)
Education
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins

Funding (17)

Refining the usability and acceptability of reporting guidelines: a sequential feasibility study and parallel process evaluation.

2025-03-01 to 2026-04-30 | Grant
National Institute for Health and Care Research (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: NIHR206847
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Securing Transparency And Reproducibility in studies of Nutritional interventions (STAR-Nut)

2024-05-31 to 2025-05-30 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: MR/Z503824/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Sample Size calculations for UPDATing clinical prediction models to Ensure their accuracy and fairness in practice (SS-UPDATE)

2024-04-14 to 2027-04-13 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: MR/Z503873/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

NIHR Senior Investigator Award R17

2024-04-01 to 2028-03-31 | Grant
National Institute for Health and Care Research (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: NIHR303919
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis of Prognosis Studies (REVAMP): development of core methods, reporting guidelines and a methodology handbook

2023-11-01 to 2025-11-30 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: MR/V038168/2
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Sample Size guidance for developing and validating reliable and fair AI PREDICTion models in healthcare (SS-PREDICT)

2023-10-01 to 2025-03-31 | Grant
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Swindon, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: EP/Y018516/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Reducing severe adverse events for women during pregnancy through prediction modelling

2022-09-30 to 2026-03-30 | Grant
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (Swindon, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: 2760182
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Enhancing the transparency and reporting of randomised trials: update of the SPIRIT 2013 and CONSORT 2010 Statements

2022-04-30 to 2024-10-31 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: MR/W020483/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis of Prognosis Studies (REVAMP): development of core methods, reporting guidelines and a methodology handbook

2021-12-01 to 2022-10-31 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: MR/V038168/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Canadian Anaphylaxis Network-Predicting Recurrence after Emergency Presentation for Allergic REactions (CAN-PREPARE)

2021-04-01 to 2024-03-31 | Grant
Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Ottawa, CA)
GRANT_NUMBER: 202010PJT
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

GoodReports: An online tool helping authors find and use reporting checklists to improve completeness of reporting

2019-09-30 to 2022-09-29 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: MR/S036741/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

A Programme of Applied Statistical Methodology Research (2019-2024)

2019-04-01 to 2024-12-31 | Grant
Cancer Research UK (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: 29084
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

A Programme of Applied Statistical Methodology Research

2019-04 to 2024-12 | Grant
Cancer Research UK (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER:

C49297/A27294

Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins

Medical Statistics Group

2014-04-01 to 2019-03-31 | Grant
Cancer Research UK (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: 16895
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

Evaluating the performance of risk prediction models

2011-10-01 to 2014-09-30 | Grant
National Institute for Health and Care Research (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: 06/92/61
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK PREDICTION MODELS

2011-09-30 to 2014-09-29 | Grant
Medical Research Council (London, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: G1100513/1
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins via DimensionsWizard

EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK PREDICTION MODELS

2011-08 to 2014-08 | Grant
Medical Research Council (Swindon, GB)
GRANT_NUMBER: G1100513
Source: Self-asserted source
Gary S Collins